Impact of Venezuelan Migration on Employment and Wages: The Peruvian Case

This paper assesses the short-term impact of the recent Venezuelan migration wave over employment and wages of Peruvian workers in Lima and Callao. The study uses the Permanent Employment Survey and finds that a raise in the immigration level of about one percent of the economic active population reduces the probability of keeping the job and income from main occupation for a subset of workers. In particular, and in relative terms, the more sensitive group is that of women between 14 and 24 years old and with low educational level. However, the share of this group in total workforce in Lima and Callao is just 2.9 percent. On the other hand, the expenditure made by migrants in Lima might have contributed in 0.33 percentage points to the GDP growth rate in 2018. Last, given the increase in the workforce and given that the average educational level of immigrants is superior to that of nationals, it is likely that productivity and potential GDP may rise in the short to medium run.