Chronology of Economic Cycles in Peru: 1992 to 2016

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December 2017

Language: Spanish

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Chronology of Economic Cycles in Peru: 1992 to 2016

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Keywords

  • business cycles
  • inflection points
  • Peru
  • synchronization

JEL Classification

  • C14
  • C22
  • C33
  • E32

Abstract

Recent advances in date-then-aggregate methodology are applied to a Peruvian set of 145 monthly indicators of economic activity during 1992 - 2016. Six contractionary phases together with five expansionary phases are found. With cumulated durations of 75-80 months and 220-225 months, respectively, they represent 25 and 75 percent of the 300-month-period of analysis. Besides, a proposed diffusion index can clearly mark off the beginnings and endings of those phases. (Audio: Department of Economic Publications)