Abstract
This document presents an update to the Quarterly Projection Model used between 2014 and 2019 by the BCRP’s Central Office of Economic Studies for macroeconomic forecasting and for simulating various monetary policy and risk scenarios. It discusses the main changes in the model’s structure compared to the last complete version published. It also documents the results of the re-estimation of the model’s parameters using data from 2002 to 2017 and evaluates the implications of these changes in terms of the model’s dynamic properties. In addition, the report presents estimates of the model’s implicit unobservable variables, notably the output gap and potential GDP growth. Finally, it traces the history of the main macroeconomic aggregates from the model’s perspective through a historical decomposition exercise.
