An Empirical Analysis of the Credit-Output Relationship: Evidence from Peru

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between credit and output in Peru. The analysis is based on the estimation of vector error correction models and the identification of structural shocks. The models considered include real output, real credit growth (in domestic currency, foreign currency and both), and terms of trade. Using quarterly data for the period 1994-2011, the results suggest that real credit growth contain useful information to understand the evolution of the non-deterministic component of real output. In particular, the results show that: (i) there exist a stable long-run relationship between real credit growth, output and terms of trade, (ii) real credit growth is useful in forecasting output in the long-run, and (iii) a structural permanent shock in real credit has positive permanent effects on output. Therefore, credit aggregates could be useful as indicator variables for policymakers.