Economic effects of climate change in Peru.

This document assesses the economic effects of global warming in Peru by using regional data on output and climate. We use series of national accounts of the INEI available from 1970 to 2019 and series of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall published by the National Meteorological Office, which has information from the 1960s for most of regions. We find out that despite the high uncertainty in the models, if the current deviations in temperatures compared to the levels that prevailed between the years 1960 and 1990, maintain a similar trend, this would reduce income per inhabitant by 9 percent as of 2050 (within a range from 9 to 21 percent) and 22 percent as of 2100 (as part of a range from 8 to 46 percent). It should be noted that this wide range of forecasts is due to the inherent uncertainty in these models of climate-based effects.