Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy

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December 2014

Language: English

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Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy

Keywords

  • counterfactual analysis
  • Quantitative Easing
  • sign restrictions
  • structural VAR

JEL Classification

  • E43
  • E51
  • E52
  • E58

Abstract

Emerging economies were largely affected because of FED's quantitative easing (QE) policies. This paper assesses the impact of these measures in terms of key macroeconomic variables for a small open economy (SOE) such as Peru. We identify QE policy shocks in a SVAR with Block Exogeneity (Zha, 1999) and we impose a mixture of zero and sign restrictions (Arias et al., 2014). In addition, following Pesaran and Smith (2014), we implement a counterfactual exercise in order to gauge the differences between two scenarios: with and without QE policies. Overall, we find that QE policies had significant effects over financial variables such as aggregate credit and the exchange rate. On the other hand, we find small but significant effects over inflation and output in the medium run.