The relationship between inflation and growth discrete cycles: Peru 1993 - 2012

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December 2014

Language: Spanish

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The relationship between inflation and growth discrete cycles: Peru 1993 - 2012

Keywords

  • discrete regression
  • firms fluctuations
  • forecasting
  • logit
  • model construction and evaluation
  • time series models

JEL Classification

  • C22
  • C25
  • C51
  • C52
  • C53
  • E32

Abstract

This study verifies the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and short-run economic growth in Peru with data that covers the period January 1993 - June 2012. The paper uses a family of dichotomic models about the relationship between acceleration and deceleration phases on the dynamics of both inflation and growth. One-equation autoregressive logit models as well as static and autoregressive binary probit models are estimated. Results suggest the existence of a positive stochastic relationship between inflation and growth discrete cycles.