Contribution of external shocks to economic growth in Peru: A semi-structural model

This paper studies the contribution of the external sector to the Peruvian economic growth in the period 1996-2005. A semi-structural model, similar to those developed in Berg & others (2006), Salas (2011), Adler & Sosa (2012) and Han (2014) is used. In the model, external shocks are endogenously propagated to the growth of a small, open and partially dollarized economy through real (trade and terms of trade) and financial (volatility and the exchange rate) channels. Results show that the joint effect of external shocks faced by the Peruvian economy are heterogeneous through time and through the type of shock: In the 2005-2008 and 2010-2013 periods, external shocks explain up to 36% and 28% of observed GDP growth respectively. Also, during 2009, in the absence of the global economic crisis, GDP would have grown by 4,2 percentage points more. (observed growth was 1,1%)