Demographic dividend, productivity and growth.

This paper studies the relationship among changes in the demographic structure and the per-capita and per-worker GDP growth of Peru. Our principal findings show that the demographic factor contributed 0,4 percentage points (pp) to the annual GDP growth in the 2000-2019 period. Furthermore, the impact from 5 pp shift of the workforce share out of 30-39 years old group to the 40-54 years old group increases the output per worker in 10 percent, given the accumulation of experience. Changes in the age structure of the workforce would have contributed 0,04 pp per year to the labor productivity growth for the 2010-2020 period. Therefore, the overall contribution of the demographic changes on the per-capita GDP through the direct impact of the demographic factor and its contribution through the labor productivity would have been 0,24 pp per year for the 2010-2020 period and 0,13 pp in the 2020-2030 period. Finally, the socio-economic conditions in which Peru receives the demographic dividend are not the best, in comparison to the developed countries that already experienced the demographic benefit. Thus, it is a priority to implement structural reforms that improve these conditions to allow greater benefits of the demographic dividend.