Productive Diversification in Peru: Multidimensional Evidence

This study examines the drivers of productive diversification in Peru, an economy characterized by a high concentration of exports in primary resources and persistent difficulties in transitioning toward more complex activities. It proposes a triangulation strategy to identify structural and invariant constraints that shape the emergence of new export products. The results converge on three main findings. First, distance in the product space constitutes the primary barrier to the entry of new activities. Second, economic complexity acts as a conditional facilitator, effective only when there is sufficient proximity to existing productive capabilities. Third, the time horizons required for structural transformation are considerably long, even under favorable conditions. Overall, the evidence reveals a strong concentration of capabilities in low-competitiveness sectors, limiting diversification potential. Finally, the study identifies 50 opportunity products with relatively higher probabilities of entry, providing a concrete empirical basis for the design of selective industrial policies aimed at fostering productive diversification.