Inflation, Oil Price Volatility and Monetary Policy
In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize analytically the relation between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. Higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability and the central bank responds to output fluctuations, oil price volatility matters for the level of average inflation. The model shows that when oil price volatility increases, average inflation increases whereas average output falls: this implies a trade-off also between average inflation and that of output. The analytical solution further indicates that for a given level of oil price volatility, average inflation is higher when marginal costs are convex in oil prices, the Phillips Curve is convex, and the degree of relative price dispersion is also higher. We perform a numerical exercise showing that the model with a empirically plausible Taylor rule can replicate the level of average inflation observed in the U.S. in 2000s.
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