Banco Central de Reserva del Perú Banco Central de Reserva del Perú BCRP - Research

Luis Gonzalo Llosa

Luis Gonzalo Llosa
Luis Gonzalo Llosa
Supervisor Líder de Investigación Económica

Estudios realizados

Bachiller en Economía

Universidad del Pacífico (Perú)
2002.

Doctor en Economía

University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)
2012.

Areas of interest

  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
  • Financial Markets
  • Open Economy Macroeconomics

Keywords

  • business cycles
  • monetary policy rules
  • uncertainty

Perfiles académicos:

Gonzalo Llosa holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He currently serves as Lead Supervisor of Economic Research at the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). His research specializes in monetary policy, business cycle synchronization, and terms of trade. Recently, he has focused his analysis on the impact of uncertainty on financial conditions and business cycle fluctuations. His work has been published in international journals such as the Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, and Emerging Markets Review.

Main Publications

Using additional information in estimating the output gap in Peru: a multivariate unobserved component approach

One of the key elements for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures through the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component (MUC) model, relying on an explicit short run relation between the output gap and inflation rate (Phillips Curve) and structural restrictions over output dynamics. The results show that the MUC output gap estimate is less sensible to end of sample problems and exhibits closer dynamics with the inflation process than the standard output gap estimates

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How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets

This paper analyzes how terms of trade affect aggregate productivity using a two-country monopolistic competitive business cycle model driven by aggregate technology shocks. The inefficiency of the equilibrium implies that each country’s productivity is affected by the terms of trade. This introduces a novel mechanism for business cycle synchronization. Moreover, for each country, foreign technology shocks have almost the same effects as domestic technology shocks. The paper also shows how terms of trade movements can lead to excess volatility of consumption and highly persistent productivity. On the quantitative side, the model delivers a degree of business cycle synchronization that is close to the actual comovement of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world. The model also implies that for some small open economies, specially emerging economies, foreign shocks can outperform domestic shocks in explaining their business cycles. Finally, the paper provides a quantification of the influence of the terms of trade on emerging countries’ productivity and finds that it can be large.

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